Eritrea Foiled Ethiopia’s No-Peace-No-War Strategy

By Amanuel Biedemariam,
ethiopia-eritrea-war-375x251 In an interview with the Voice of America (VoA) and, during a seminar Ginbot 7 conducted in Sheraton Hotel Arlington, when asked how Ethiopia arming Eritrean opposition groups concerns you? Ginbot 7 Secretary Andargachew Tsige replied, “TPLF is in no position to wage any offensive against Eritrea. I know this to be a fact!
In a previous article “Ethiopia’s No-Peace-No-War Strategy against Eritrea Backfired” the author explained TPLF’s objectives, strategies and that it failed and backfired. However, the author did not specify why, the strategies failed and its future implications to the region, Ethiopia, Ethiopian opposition groups, Eritrea, the anti-Eritrean elements that operate from Ethiopia to topple the government of Eritrea etc…

Mr. Andargachew stated, “Ethiopia is in the position it is in not because TPLF is strong or lack of opportunities, it is only because Ethiopia’s opposition groups have not readied themselves to mount challenge against the defeated TPLF.”
When, in 2000, under the pretext of border dispute TPLF conducted its war of aggression against Eritrea, Ethiopians were relatively united, furious and determined to defeat Eritrea. They bought into TPLF’s destructive agenda and lashed-out vengefully. Regaining Eritrea, if that failed to take Aseb was the bait used to lure Ethiopians. The TPLF is still using the strategy.
On a recent conversation, while discussing Ethiopian opposition stance on Eritrea,ESAT commentators stated that many are viewing Eritrea as the only hope. They said, “Ethiopia is in deep hole. The only lifeline for Ethiopia is Eritrea. To take Eritrea as enemy while under the whole-grabbing the only robe to life is nonsensical.”
What this shows is a shift of opinion. It is significant because a major and leading constituency is leading this view and actually fighting for it saying, “Eritrea is not our enemy; Eritrea is the closest to Ethiopia culturally, geographically and economically. Furthermore, Eritreans do not view Ethiopia as their enemy. They want stable peaceful coexistence. Because what happens in Ethiopia affects Eritrea be it positive or negative.”
The question, what does this view do to TPLF’s agenda of hostilities? If the TPLF cannot mount military offensive, if could not use Eritrea or Aseb to unite Ethiopians or use Eritreans against Eritrea, what stick does TPLF have left against Eritrea? Furthermore, Ethiopians view TPLF as the number one enemy that must be toppled.
In the global seen, the TPLF eagerly serves the interest of the International community. They have sold the interests of the West, China, mid-east and India in advancing their geostrategic, geopolitical and economic agendas at the expense of Ethiopia. The TPLF is selling Ethiopia’s lands, location as the host of African Union and leveraged that to sell the African agenda the West designed. They sold terrorism and everything they can to advance narrow ethnic agenda at the expense of the region and Africans to the dismay of countries like South Africa.
Additionally, the unipolar world TPLF exploited at the expense of the region, Africa and Ethiopia is drastically changing taking with it the unchallenged influence the US, (TPLF’s mainbackbone) exerted at one time. The geopolitical shift in Syria, the change in US Iran relations, the commitment Russia displayed on Syria will undoubtedly influence Mid East politics and international alliances soon. In addition, US’s weaker economic position will lead to cuts in military expenditures which in turn will lead to US’s lessoning of dependency on Ethiopia as it’sconduit for controlling the region.
Many factors are at play here. Sudan, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Eritrea, as owners of the Red Sea present more concern in the area of maritime to all the actors since instabilities in these countries can affect many things in the global economic seen because the Red Sea is a lifeline to global commerce. Hence, working in cooperation with these countries will prove to be more cost effective than the TPLF.
For a long time the US and Western agenda has relied on Ethiopia to control the region and forward their agendas. The TPLF however, failed to deliver on many fronts particularly Eritrea. The TPLF bragged that Eritrea will fail in 6 months after it waged war that took the lives of hundreds of thousands with millions displaced creating unnecessary economic hardship. They then turned into a No-War-No-Peace (war nonetheless) agenda to uproot Eritrea from its core. TPLF’s agenda was to topple Eritrea and give Ethiopia and the West complete control of the region.
Eritrea however, is still standing and turning corners while Ethiopia is becoming a danger on to itself. This is becoming evident to Western actors and the US that are showing eagerness to work with Eritrea. They can see future instabilities in Ethiopia while at the same time cognizant of Eritrea’s resilience. They also see Eritrea’s influence in the region. To quote Thomas Mountain, “The road to peace in the Horn of Africa goes via Asmara!
The reason TPLF is where it is that Eritreans are brilliantly playing the chess game and winning. When Ethiopia and the US tried to arm Eritreans believing Eritreans will rise against their government if armed, Eritrea in turn armed every Eritrean and invalidated their theories. The economic sanctions and arms embargo they (That Meles Zenawi bragged will change Eritrea’s military-ware to relic) orchestrated failed.
When Ethiopia, in violation of the Algiers Agreement attacked Eritrea in June of 2011 to lure Eritrea into war, Eritrea did not take the bait. TPLF and its handlers recruited failed anti-Eritrean groups and individuals like Hurui, (who ended up barhopping in Addis and forgot Eritrea) that pushed for ethnic and regional divide and failed.
To the contrary what they planned against Eritrea is happening to Ethiopia: Bombings, demonstrations, wars, economic hardships, ethnic division, religious tensions characterize Ethiopia today. This is not sustainable because at some point things will erupt beyond control. This reality is what many are coming to grips with. Ethiopians everywhere are desperately trying to save their country from eminent (if not tackled correctly) instability.
And contrary to TPLF’s claim that Eritrea is trying to destabilize Ethiopia, the TPLF is doing destabilizing itself. Moreover, Eritrea’s position is and remains cooperation and regional stability. Girma Seifu Maru, Ethiopia’s only opposition in a 547-seat parliament said, “The authorities risk provoking social unrest if they do not offer more political space to critical voices.”
To Conclude
All points to the fact that Ethiopia is in peril. The region needs stability and Ethiopians, Eritreans, Somalis and all peace loving people from the region can kill TPLF agenda of chronic state of conflict through cooperation.
Every strategy the regime used to kill Ethiopia’s opposition by linking them to terrorism and by extension present Eritrea in that light failed. The narrow ethnic agenda the regime pursued has faltered isolating it from the entire region while infighting amongst the TPLF cadres escalates.
Mr. Andargachew Tsigie said, “Meles was a puppeteer that used strings to control his puppets individually. These puppets are not supposed to work together by design. After his death the puppets are loose, out of control unable to control the country,” like Sibhat Nega who is running rampant in DC and chased by Ethiopians everywhere like a mad dog.
Eritrea on the other hand was not allowed the respite by the TPLF crime-masters that show no sign of ever wanting peace or stability. They keep hard-selling that Eritrea will fail soon while the failing is taking place on their backyard direct result of their mishandling of Ethiopia.
Eritrea truly is subjected to unprecedented amount of rebuke, demonizing and systemic assault designed to weaken and destabilize her. However, knowing that they are at war and to the dismay of TPLF and its handlers, Eritreans never relinquished the grip on the arms they lifted to safeguard hard won independence and to see that the TPLF rests in its rightful place, the hands of Ethiopians.


  1. Aye Amanuel,
    When you have a country more than five thousand risk there live to leave the country even thou they will die trying to speak about ethiopia is shame full.
    With our problem we are far better than eritria. Eritrians are now become a gypsy of africa and emabrassment of the world.
    They even get asylm in somalia. they are less than the failed state somalia. b/c somalies respected where ever they go as the world know they fight for there right. but thanks to shabia eritrians now become started to be treated like dog every where.
    you contradicted your self in one hand you say your gov. work is doing well against ethiopia and the country will fall down soon and in another you try to preach us your gov. love and care about ethiopia.

  2. Is Eritrea stable ? Why then many flee in thousands to their death ? Why we have 70,000 of them in refugee camp in North Ethiopia ? Are they for tourists or scholars going to the West ?
    G7 or the view expressed on ESAT a Shabia paid media is a very minority view. It will be impossible for G7 to organize rallies in public in diaspora to show how popular they are because they know that they will not get supporters that can even fill one hall.
    Yes Ethiopian opposition back home is organizing. In Eritrea under Isaias it is unthinkable to protest. The only way they can protest is by taking a long March South of Mereb.
    The crisis in Egypt, Sudan, Yemen will continue for a very long time. Somalia and Eritrea have no grass root movements like that of Ethiopia and change will only come violently.
    The failed coup in Asmara recently is a case. Woyane Shabia leadership wants to save their Fatherland Eritrea when the time comes. Until then half of the Eritrean young will be refugees.
    Eritrea under Shabia and Ethiopia under Woyane can no longer exist together. It is vey likely war will break very soon. Isaias stooges like TPDM,OLF, ONLF and G7 strategist will be thrown in the front to fight for Shabia. Isaias will be defeated once and for all. Eritrea will fall under Woyane Shabia for good.
    Shabia has no army now what it has is forced conscripts that will give themselves up for their cousins South of Mereb. when war broke. A puppet will control Asmara.
    The writer has not said a word for the economic hardship inside Eritrea. Eritrea is broke. Uprising can get momentum if there is a woyane supported coup. Removing Isaias is what Woyane is working day and night.
    If King Isaias is gone Woyane Shabias and the the Shabia in Asmara will go to bed as usual. Do not forget Eritrea can not survive by itself.
    For Ethiopians that is going back to early 1990s where Eritreans were dancing on our face. No more “Eritrea Yeglelachen Ethiopia Yegarachene”. Democratic Eritrea and democratic Ethiopia is the only solution to our problem. Down with Shabia and Woyane Shabia !!!!!

  3. I Agree with Mr. Andargachew 100% the opposition is not ready politically,Strategicaly and demographically.
    As we all knows the opposition is not opposition at all by any logical standard, it lacks demographic diversity,
    why should Ethiopias majority/non Amhara Ethiopians join such Amhara dominated opposition, in this case I see no logic but Amhara tribalism in stealth of opposition.

  4. Shabia is not brutalizing, arresting, torturing, and murdering our people but weyane. We have not see shabia arresting, killing and torturing, the oromos, amahras, benshanguel, ogaden and others but weyane, we have not seen shabia removing our poor farmers and sell it to china and india but weyane.
    At this time, whether you like it or not there is no brutal and cruel enemy to Ethiopians more than the Tigrian TPLF gangs. However those stupid and nonsense worthless individuals who have been screaming against shabia and ginbot 7 are simply MORONS who have not been doing anything to support the struggle but screaming all over the cyber like a mad dog day in and day out against ginbot 7. And they have been doing this for the last few years and their concern is not shabia but they are extremely burned with jealousy when ginbot 7 is mobilizing the struggle. IN fact in the eyes of many Ethiopians the worst enemies of Ethiopians are these worthless diaspora based elements who are attacking our genuine oppositions.
    Ethiopians are happy the friendly relationship of Ethiopians and Eritreans and we Ethiopians are always on the side of Eritreans. Do not blame Eritreans what happened between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as the main perpetrators were previous Ethiopians dictators. The Eritrean question could have resolved peacefully, if our dictators were willing to give some thought for the voice of Eritreans.
    It is also known that the TPLF gangs had raised and fed by shabia and of course there is no one better than shabia who knows the weak as well as the strong side of weayne, in that case the step taken by some Ethiopian opposition groups to approach shabia and have them as a tactical friend to bring down weayne seems very smart and well designed.
    The current ginbot 7 strategy is very excellent and will be supported by millions of Ethiopians and we should say no to weyane and at the same time death to the enemies of the struggle.

  5. We Ethiopians supporting EPRDF, because there is no logically appealing political opposition that gives confidence and security. Beside, from what I see the country going the right direction.

  6. Let the Eritreans people solve their own problem. We have our own problems that has been caused by TPLF gangs. The Eritrian fought The Beloved Ethiopia for 30 years for what ? They were better of when they were part of Ethiopia. Look what is happening to them Isais is killing them every second…they becoming dinner for fisfh
    They selling thier organ any time any where. King Isaise might starte a war with ethiopian to switch the attention. He might put OLF and ONLF fighters up front.f

  7. Truth, nothing but the TRUTH.
    You can not blame the entire socioeconomic problem of Ethiopia on EPRDF, rather the Amhara Dominated governments had destroyed Ethiopia socialfabric and economics incorrigible for the 100+ years, regardless who or what government installed in Ethiopia that correcting and fixing Amhara’s mess is not going to be easy task.

  8. Dear Amanuael,
    Your bizarre propaganda doesn’t make sense at all. You may dislike TPLF or dis agree vehemently on many issues but to suggest that we need the help of a fascist organisation like EPLF to topple EPRDF is laughable to say the least. Eritrea as a country is nothing but a little nation that will not exist in a few year time. The country that is ruled by a single party and individual where democracy, the respect for the rule and freedom doesn’t exist can’t be considered as a friend to the people of the Ethiopia that aspire full democracy and complete freedom. One thing I can tell you is that, do not think you can sell this cheap propaganda. If we have the chance we Ethiopian without any hesitation either destroy Shabia or will certainly try to dismember Eritrea at least in to three parts. That is a policy a future government of Ethiopia will adapt. Don’t tell us you are our friend, we know what you did and you know what did!!! We will never, ever forget or forgive.

  9. Eri hatrer of ethio got what they deserved, an independent hell state…We ethios have governed ourselves for thousands of years. Through that time we have seen it all. We will continue to outwit Shabia and Shabab. No doubt abt this. ..we will continue to grow our GDP while tackling corruption. In the next 20 years there will be massive transformation in ethio..we will be like south Africa in 25 years and like Japan in 40 years…Shabia and shabab will be destroyed..long live ethio civilization.

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